Ban With The Bull, Chill With The Bear: The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition

[Editor’s note: The July 2009 issue of Socionomics has an interesting essay and series of graphs that seeks to look 5-10 years into future regarding the decidedly declining public, political and business support for cannabis prohibition. Socionomics is a subscription based publication, and the graph and first 500 words of the essay are re-printed with permission.] The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition

History shows that mood governs society’s tolerance for recreational drugs. A rising social mood produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; a falling mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation. In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. Eventually, as mood continued to sour, the government finally capitulated to public cries for decriminalization as a means to end the corruption and bloodshed.
We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs. The March 1995 Elliott Wave Theorist first forecasted the Drug War’s repeal at the end of the bear market and in 2003, EWT stated that during the decline, “The drug war will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized.”

The Case of Marijuana

Social mood influences people’s actions and their social judgments. In times of positive mood, people have the resources to enforce their social desires. They can afford to express the black and white moral issues preferred during bull markets, and drug abuse is a favorite target.
During times of negative mood, on the other hand, society’s priorities change. People have other, bigger worries and begin to view recreational drugs as less dangerous, if not innocuous in offering stress relief, pain reduction and the ability to cope with the pressures of negative social mood.
Over the past 100 years, governmental activities have manifested these changing attitudes. During periods of rising mood, policymakers stepped up regulation of cannabis. During periods of falling mood, they eased those same stances.
As shown in Figure 1, each legislative attempt to restrict marijuana use followed at least three, and in most cases four or five, bull-market years. In 1937, Congress passed the Marijuana Tax Act. The law banned casual consumption of the drug and limited its use to specific medical and industrial purposes. Franklin Roosevelt signed the law at the top of a roaring bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average having quintupled from its 1932 low. The real crackdown, however, came over a decade later during the massive wave III bull move.
The Boggs Act, which increased drug use penalties fourfold, and the Narcotics Control Act, which increased penalties another eightfold, both came during the most powerful portion of wave 3 of III of the bull market. Then in 1958, after four more years of rising mood, Wisconsin farmers harvested the last legal crop of U.S.-grown hemp. In 1989, President George H.W. Bush’s famous “War on Drugs” speech came on the heels of seven years of net progress in the stock market. In 1999, a year before the top of the Grand Supercycle bull market, the DEA banned the importation of hemp products that contained even a trace of Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), marijuana’s psychoactive ingredient.
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  1. AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    That last statement is just so assinine! The DEA….DEA banned all hemp products containing even a trace of THC!! How stupid. What are people going to do?Gather up a ton of hemp and smoke it forthat small trace of THC. What a bunch of SHIT! Its time people. Time to shut these goons down,time to shrink government, time to put our police officers back to the job of protecting and serving on the local level for local folks…not this freaking wod monster machine!
    I swear I loose more hair (from pulling it out and stress)everytime I read things like this.

  2. The DEA lost in court on the ban on hemp items–the whole poppy seed precedent and trace amounts of THC do not lead to positive pee tests.
    Why have Weber and Spector not yet announced their budget cuts favorable to cannabis legalization?
    I’m hoping it’s because Obama doesn’t want to upset the apple cart he’s got going on health care by telling people up front, so one can only hope that once figures come out for how much universal health care and stimulus programs for Change (he ran on change) that the mood will be falling to the point where no one of consequence will listen to the prohibitionists any longer. (My European counterparts tell me that there is another wave of bad news to hit the financial sector in the U.S. because Americans have assumed too much credit card debt and are not able to pay. I’m waiting for that shoe to drop on the market.)
    I want this done well before Christmas of 2009, even if it doesn’t go into effect until tax year 2010. The sooner the better. Legalize cannabis now.
    Legalize now!

  3. this has got to be one of the best articles i have ever read because it backs up interesting facts with proof that you can research yourself personally we as a people need to remember something all you potheads out there please i repeat please when it becomes “legal” dont take it upon yourselves to screw this up for the rest of us by going outside and casually6 lighting up in front of a cop just to prove you can because remember there is such a thing as pi (public intox) for the laments i want to smoke recreationaly damn it let it be done right parents keep your kids off drugs its an adult thing and you know it just follow along the lines that we all did

  4. Also, did anyone see the story on yahoo news about mexican drug cartels killing a southamerican drug boss? These cartels are expanding thier reach and power thanks to our wonderful WOD’s and the prohibs that support it. I think it to be strange. Prohibs say we support terrorist and cartels by using drugs and cannabis…lol well so are they by supporting the machine(WOD’s) that supports these terrorists and cartels.
    Prohibs…Stop supporting these terrorists and cartels!! Take the profit out of drugs and cannabis! Dismantle your policies that support them.!!

  5. Thank you NORML. I love that everyday I can come to your site and read yet another piece of news showing the end is near.
    #4 I’ve been hearing the same thing. We’re quick to get back into our fat and lazy routines like nothing ever happend because the past two months have “been better”
    #5 You bring up a good point. However, I’d like to be able to sit on the front porch of the house I own and smoke up and have a beer at the same time instead of smoking in the backyard and enjoying beer on the porch.

  6. I am very happy to see progress NORML. I will send more money next month keep up the good work.

  7. I just hope that federal government will do away with The Marijuana Stamp Act of 1937 and The Control Substance Act of 1970. Those two laws are made to keep marijuana illegal. The Control Substance Act of 1970 was a trick made by President Richard Nixon to place marijuana on the same catagory as heroin, and thus, created the Drug Enforcment Angency to make it permanent. Remember, Richard Nixon hated the smart-ass hippie pot smokers, the intellectuals, and the media.

  8. This is exactly what I’ve been saying!!! And this makes me just… beyond ecstatic! I feel that Obama was all talk, but once his “changes” are made the united states is going to collapse or embrace the potential of cannabis and finally legalize. It’s about time! I feel that so far mr. Obama is no better than Bush… he is just more sneaky. But time will tell.

  9. When someone finally considers handcuffs and jailtime as violence against their natural born rights and resists we will see instant change. Just because badges enforce the non-natural laws does not leave them without blame, remember everything the SS did was legal. Let no one tell you it is immoral for you to defend your liberty by any means. There is no moral high ground when it comes to defending freedom. Liberty is an absolute and people are waking up!

  10. The war on cannabis is a war on people with different beliefs; the actions of the DEA are suspciously similar to another political police force from history…the ShutzStaffel, or “SS”.

  11. It’s unfortunate that good changes towards marijuana policy in the country is given during hard times. Good change should come anytime the people ask for it. why does blood has to be spilled for the goverment to see and understand we want change.
    Legalize it.

  12. I applaude and salute you R.O.E. To not smoke till prohibition ends must take herculean restraint. Very admirable. Running on empty. Makes me sad tho. Im rollin and smokin a FAT one now in your honor. Thats how im fighting babylon. By smoke smoke smoooking.Our gov may have fogot freedom but i havent. LOL they can take my multi-hosed hookah when they pry it from my cold dead fingers. Keep up the good fight soon, we will all be smokin free

  13. Do not be surprised if you have not heard this before. Government health care may well include drug testing. But it will be voluntary, if you want health care. If a patient tests positive, it may be taken to mean the patient is not serious enough about his/her health to rate the public funding of even routine medical treatment. Are there enough true American patriots left to stop this insanity?

  14. legalization of hemp plants to be used as a paper substitute’s or alternative to logging has great merit. It would also create a a new profitable crop for farners in many parts of the country, the hardiness of the plant enables it to thrive in many enviorns.

  15. So as money gets tight the prohibitionists see that their policy is economically not viable. Then the voice of reason starts to sound off and what you end up with is the original rights that our founders put in the constitution “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness”
    Let’s all hope this prohibition thing comes to an end before our economy tanks.

  16. “We have got 36,000 total in jail in Canada and that is a very modest number, a very reasonable number. It is still probably the eighth highest percentage in the world, but the United States has the highest percentage of people in jail. . That is because they have mandatory minimums there.”
    Is this a correct figuire? Is that all they have in prison in Canada.
    Hell we have far more than that just in Florida alone!

  17. Currently out of work,happy marijuana smoker for 30 years. Gee lets add to my stress,thats right I quit to get a job.Sure would be nice to see it legalized before I’m laid to rest.Smoke one for me,passing time in Indiana.

  18. The problem with “Government” is the fact that it has gotten so large ,its a separate entity instead of the extension of “We The People” it was created to be.
    “We The People” are suppose to control the “Government” not be controlled by it.That being said NOW its time for
    “We The People” to stop sitting by silently and allowing the steady erosion of our Liberties.Our Ancestors died so we could have them but its up to us to preserve them.If we all do our part we can reverse this cycle of erosion .Vote ,don’t just assume your vote don’t matter. Write,E-mail,Call your State Representatives,let them know how you want to be represented on all the issues ,don’t assume they will make the right decision.And we need to always vote for the new man,re-electing breeds corruption that’s how we got in this situation voting them ALL out is the only fix.this is my assessment, am i alone on this ? Or is this the general consensus?

  19. Don’t worry… soon the last of the hippies will be dead. You know… the ones that multiplied like rabbits once they had marijuana taken away, sperm levels increased, fertility restored, and became dependant on alcohol for leisure.

  20. Sorry guys/ladies have not been on lately as many people know I am a network marketer and is partial reason why I have not been on lately. How ever I did see the news and must say that this is indeed a good step for the cause. But we all must remember not to quit fighting just because we are making progress matter of fact we need to keep doing all we can and are doing till our cause has won and even then after we do win the cause we must still keep fighting where history does not repeat its self after all what good would it do if we faught for the cause won the cause then did nothing else while the prohibitionists notice this they would be more likely to do away with the progress we made. This is a reason why we shall still need NORML and those others who are out their as rep.s for us the people. We are all doing a great job as it is but the fight is far from over. So keep up the fight fellow patriots and as soon as I find out when their is an update for the HR2943 bill I shall post it for every one to know what the update is.

  21. fourty years of smoking and I still work hard ever day
    now it is time, to legalize marijuana, and enjoy!

  22. I really hold little hope for legalization of cannabis on a federal level because, whenever any government gains the kind of power over its citizens like ours has, they almost always are reluctantly unwilling to return it to us.

  23. If experience has taight us anything, it’s that when dealing with PROHIBITIONISTS we have to fight twice as hard to keep what we’ve won than we did to get it.
    It’s not legal in California yet, but that’s because we keep the pressure on them, and don’t let up one damned bit.

  24. #36 Greentoker Says:
    July 24th, 2009 at 12:36 am
    “It’d be nice if I could actually read the diagram…”
    Try this link…
    Chill w/ the Bear

    – Also helpful…
    The Image-Zoom add-on / extension
    for Firefox web-browser.
    (Zoom any web-page image using
    middle scrolling-wheel on mouse).

    “If you’re going to be the bear…be a grizzly.”
    Take Teddy to beddy with ya…but…with the grizzly…you rise with the prize. All this yappin’ with no ass slappin’ is just like pissin’ in the wind.

  26. #38 Anonymous Says:
    July 27th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
    “If you’re going to be the bear…be a grizzly.”
    Take Teddy to beddy with ya…but…with the grizzly…you rise with the prize. All this yappin’ with no ass slappin’ is just like pissin’ in the wind.
    RE: Anonymous, (MM?)
    – The one thing which bears-mention,
    (and other animals also discuss…),
    that makes one a ‘grizzly’, is unbearable-pain,
    and ongoing cannabinoid-deficiency.
    (depleted by life-stresses and existence in a highly entropic, deteriorating physical-universe…).
    – The Teddy Bear,(E.P.), as identified in song-form,
    passed-on early, dying young, as an embarassment
    to modern-medicine, from multiple, toxic

    (And that’s no bull…).

  27. Thank you NORML!
    The best T-shirt that NORML made available has been the, appropriately phrased, “fight terrorism, buy domestic” shirt. I’ve had nothing but possative feedback when anyone would read mine, even the folks who oppose marijuana use. It mkes people think and have a better understanding of what is realy going on.
    So, everyone where your NORML shirts and we might get alot more people on the right track, I did.
    Time for me to get a few more “fight terroerism shirts as gifts.

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